by Bob Ehalt

Even in our depressed economy there have been scores of better ways to make money than trying to beat Zenyatta.

Now perfect in 13 starts in her career, the unbeaten five-year-old Street Cry (Ire) mare has continually been an inviting target for wise guys as she has been sent off at odds below even money in her previous nine races. But if there was a notion that she was vulnerable in any of them, it was ultimately a waste of time, energy and, yes, money to try and beat her.

Now, her presence in Saturday’s $5-million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) as the 5-to-2 morning-line favorite, puts Zenyatta center stage on the second and final day or racing world championships at the Oak Tree at Santa Anita Park meeting. There she’ll face the toughest challenge of her career while offering handicappers what looms as their best chance of finally collecting a wager at her expense.

In a race that will no doubt define her career, Zenyatta will face males for the first time and does so at a juncture in her career when she may be slipping.

Looking at Zenyatta’s Ragozin speed figures, they have spiraled downward in her last two starts. After running a 0 in the Vanity Handicap (G1), Zenyatta took a step backward to a 1½ in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (G1). Most recently, she regressed to a 4 3/4 in the Lady’s Secret Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita, her slowest figure since July 2008. More on that later.

Slow paces have contributed to her sub-par figures, yet the 4 ½ is simply not the kind of figure that bodes well for a top-notch effort in a race like the Classic, a 1 1/4-mile test in which she may need to run at least a 1 to win. Unless, of course, you go back to the aforementioned time frame of July of 2008. Back then, Zenyatta brought a sagging line of 5-2 ¾-1 ½ into the Clement Hirsch and seemed like an attractive bet-against at an odds-on price. She responded with a career top of minus-3/4 in winning by a length.

Can she make the same turnaround in the BC Classic? Perhaps, yet this time she will be facing a much more formidable challenge and, at 5-to-2 odds, should be used only lightly in the wagering. It’s simply not worth the risk to back her in a 13-horse field filled with far more interesting wagering possibilities.

One of them is Rip Van Winkle (Ire), the 7-to-2 second choice who hopes to give Europe back-to-back wins in the Classic. The three-year-old grass star comes into his U.S. debut with a strong line of Ragozin figures (2 ½, 2 ½, 3) that has yet to show a single backward move in eight overseas starts. With that kind of recent number power, he gets a slight nod as the most likely winner of the race.

The only question mark involves the synthetic Pro-Ride surface. Rip Van Winkle has yet race on anything but grass, yet neither did Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator, a pair of Europeans who finished first and second in the last year’s Classic at Santa Anita. That makes his 7-to-2 price more appealing, though he’s hardly a value play in a wide-open race where you can find several Grade 1 winners at double-digit odds.

Among them are two horses with similar speed figures that are proven commodities on synthetic tracks and identical morning-line odds.

The first would be Colonel John. An underlay for much of his career, Colonel John has been a different horse at four. He posted a new career top of 2 ½ in his 2009 debut on grass, then bounced to 6 ¾ in his next start. He rebounded smartly, matching the 2 ½ with a runner-up finish in the Goodwood Stakes (G1) that illustrated his new top was not a knockout number and builds hope that he can match or improve off that number in the Classic. He’s also a very attractive 12-to-1 in the morning line. 

Also at 12-to-1 is Einstein who could be poised to circle back to his top figure with a line of 2 ½-7 ¾-5 ½-1 ¼ off of nine weeks rest.

Right behind them is another 12-to-1 shot with an outside chance of cracking the superfecta. Richard’s Kid is slower than the others with a line of 4 ½-2-5 ½, but should like the distance and might be a threat if he’s ready to move back toward the 2.

A U.S.-based three-year-old could also sneak into mix at a decent price. While Summer Bird and Mine That Bird have received plenty of attention, Quality Road has a much better Ragozin line than the two Triple Crown race winners.

Quality Road has a line of 1 ¾-6 ¾-½  that would normally make him the key horse at his 12-to-1 odds. Unfortunately, Quality Road has yet to race on a synthetic track making him a mystery horse. There’s simply no telling how he’ll handle the track, though his price, if it holds up, offers a decent risk-to-reward ratio.

Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Summer Bird, who beat Quality Road in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1) and Shadwell Travers Stakes (G1), is coming off a 2-point new top of ¾ in the Gold Cup and seems more likely to go backward a bit than forward off that kind of a jump. He, too, will be trying Pro-Ride for the first time and at 9-to-2 odds lacks the appeal of the fellow three-year-old he has been beating recently.

As for Mine That Bird, his line of 6 ½-7 ¾-4 ¾ is pretty much what one would expect from a 12- or 20-to-1 shot. Ever since his 50.60-to-1 shocker in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1), he’s been a bet-against, a role he seems destined to fill again in the Classic. Only this time, unless you believe it is July 2008 once again, he might have some company in that spot in the form of a certain well-known mare.