by Bob Ehalt

There’s on old adage that says the more things change, the more they stay same.

Keep that in mind when you handicap the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (G1).

The dynamic three-year-old filly whose name is on the tip of everyone’s tongue may be skipping this weekend’s Breeders’ Cup. Yet in the year’s richest race for fillies and mares, it’s still a three-year-old filly who appears to stand tall over a field of older and more experienced opponents.

Ever since Rachel Alexandra strayed outside the ranks of three-year-old filly division to push around the boys, Careless Jewel has emerged as her talented understudy in the division. The Tapit filly romped to an 11-length victory in the Alabama Stakes (G1) and then breezed by 3½ lengths in the Fitz Dixon Cotillion Stakes (G2) at Philadelphia Park in her most recent start.

Now, in her first try against older opponents in a graded stakes, Careless Jewel is the focal point for handicappers in Friday’s centerpiece event of day one of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships, the $2-million Ladies’ Classic.

Checking Ragozin speed figures, Careless Jewel is clearly the fastest horse and most likely winner of the 1 1/8-mile race. She owns a solid set of Ragozin figures in her previous three races (2¾ - 5½ - 4) and has five weeks of rest, which should help her chances of turning in another 3 or 4 or better. She’ll also get a ground-saving trip from the rail as well as three pounds from her older foes.

Her odds, at 2-to-1, are not alluring, yet she’s much more inviting than the 9-to-5 favorite, Music Note, who posted a 5¾ - 3¼ - 12 - 5¾ in her previous four starts and has topped a 5¾ in only two of her 11 career starts.

The main concern for Careless Jewel’s backers is a common one at this year’s Breeders’ Cup. Careless Jewel’s last three races were on dirt tracks. Now, she’ll face the toughest test of her career on Santa Anita’s synthetic Pro-Ride surface.

Careless Jewel has raced – and won – on the Polytrack surface at Woodbine, so she cannot be classified as purely a “dirt” horse. Yet her Ragozin speed figures for those three starts on an all-weather track were a much slower 8 - 13 - 13. Those also were the first three starts of her career, so on one hand they can be forgiven. She simply may have blossomed this summer and the proof of it was coincidentally showcased in dirt races. But what if it was the dirt, and the dirt alone, that transformed Careless Jewel from a promising allowance runner at Woodbine into a multiple graded stakes winner? 

That offers at least a pause for thought, especially at 2-to-1 odds.

The exotics could beef up the payoffs, especially since the other seven starters all seem capable of running in the range of a 5 or 6. Given those circumstances, one of the best ways to find value is to latch onto a longshot who stands just as good a chance of hitting the board as a horse at half its odds.

Mushka, at 12-to-1, seems to fit that bill. Mushka won the Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (G1) at Keeneland via the disqualification of Proviso (GB) with a career top of a 5¼ and won an allowance race at Keeneland this spring with a 5¾. She ran into trouble from start to finish in the Spinster and might move forward a bit with a clean trip in her first start at Santa Anita. She seems as fast as virtually all of the others and could be the key to playing the exotics if her odds drift from the morning-line price.

Otherwise, it’s a three-year-old filly who figures to be the headliner. Where have we heard that before?