by Cynthia McFarland

The farmer of yesteryear had many of the same concerns about severe weather as today's farm owner but lacked the modern technological tools currently available. Keeping a close eye on the sky was one way farmers used to forecast the weather.

"Mare's tails," long streamer-like cirrus clouds high in the sky, and cirrocumulus clouds, also described as "mackerel scales," were usually signs bad weather would arrive in the next 36 hours. A red sky at sunset meant a high-pressure system with dry air was likely, while a red sky in the morning ("sailors take warning") meant a low-pressure system carrying moisture was on its way. A rainbow in the morning was often considered a warning of rain moving in from the west, and a halo around the moon indicated an increased chance of rain or snow within 24 hours, depending on the season.

While the sky is still a way to gauge coming weather, today's farmers and farm managers rely on fine-tuned forecasts that look several days into the future. Keeping abreast of severe weather allows them to know when to bring in horses before inclement weather strikes, and to have enough time to prepare for a potentially damaging storm.

Turning to the Web

The Internet has become a trusted source for weather forecasts. Many farm and horse owners rely on various weather websites to plan everything from turning out horses and farm maintenance projects to outdoor events, such as stallion shows and client visits.  AccuWeather.com's website (www.accuweather.com) is one of a number of sources that offer up-to-the-minute weather services. In addition to its free weather site, AccuWeather.com has both premium and professional weather services available for a nominal subscription fee. For example, the premium service is $7.95 per month or $79.95 per year; it contains no advertising and offers more in-depth weather forecast information than the free site.

"The premium service is ad-free; all you need is regular Internet service. It's for people who want all the information at their fingertips," said Kate Wotring, a marketing professional with AccuWeather.com, which is based in State College, Pennsylvania. "The premium site includes in-depth weather blogs by meteorologists, including Elliot Abrams, Joe Bastardi, Jesse Ferrell, Henry Margusity."

"Each blogger [on the premium site] has a different style," said Ferrell, meteorological content manager for AccuWeather.com and a regular blogger on the premium site. "I tend to concentrate on severe weather and what's happened recently, including things that made the news and things that didn't but should have. The motto on my blog is, ÔThe weather is always interesting.' I believe there's always something interesting going on in the weather in the world. I try to educate people on the weather beyond what they'd hear on the news or on television."

On the premium site, composite radar loops are included and are updated every five minutes. In addition to local radar, the Doppler precipitation loops give an excellent prediction of what to expect. The site's Hour-by-Hour Forecast allows subscribers to look ahead over the next 36 hours to find out what the weather holds. AccuPOP gives the probability of precipitation in three-hour increments over the next four days and is broken down into rain, snow, and ice. Storm Timer is an exclusive service of AccuWeather.com and plots the expected movement of significant storms over the next hour. It can allow users to detect severe storms even before a warning is issued.

"Storm Timer is a good tool," Ferrell said. "It tags the most severe storms in your area and gives you an idea where they're moving."

RadarPlus can be purchased as a standalone product or added to the premium or professional site. The interactive radar display allows subscribers to zoom in and out and to pan around. It also includes predictive radar, meaning a photo of current radar is projected six hours into the future so you can see what is coming before it arrives. Subscribers can plot their specific longitude and latitude to project what time a storm will strike their area.

If you are curious about how current weather compares with past years, the site includes historical weather data reaching back 15 years. Plotted maps of the last year of data are available, which include comparisons to normal. Daily high temperatures, low temperatures, rainfall, and snowfall also are available.

"All of our services have 30-day free trial, so people can try them and see what works best for them," Ferrell said. "The premium service is a good starting point. We also offer a professional service, which is geared to meteorologists and hard-core weather enthusiasts. It offers long-range forecasts, and we have quite a few businesses using this."

Making decisions

Joe Ramsey, farm manager at John G. Sikura's Hill 'N' Dale Farms in Lexington, relies on the Weather Channel's website (http://www.weather.com/) to stay informed about regional forecasts. With nearly 1,000 acres and an average of 250 horses at the farm, Ramsey appreciates having timely information so he can make practical decisions.

"We watch the weather forecast locally every day on our desktop [computers] online to check the radar," Ramsey said. "We're in and out of our computers in the office several times a day, and if there are storms in the forecast, we're constantly watching the forecast.

"The Doppler radar that is available online is nearly real time. There's a few minutes delay on the radar, but we're looking at it hours out, not minutes out. We're trying to make guesses, just like the weather man does. Everything that you hear from the experts has to be checked by reality, but when in doubt, we try to err on the safe side."

Ramsey takes advantage of the weather website year-round and finds it helpful in every season. Knowing what kind of weather to expect allows him to plan when to tackle outdoor maintenance projects as well as when horses should be brought in due to a threatening storm.

If a severe storm is forecasted for the area, Ramsey makes every possible effort to have all horses inside the barns. This is not only because of the possibility of lightning strikes, but also because trees can come down and fences may be damaged in a storm. But while horse safety is important, he adds that human safety is the most important thing.

"I've seen people get on a mission and get single-minded about doing something, and they cause a problem by trying too hard to do something when the timing is bad. We don't want to be caught out in a storm trying to bring horses up," he said. "If we go out in windy weather and every horse in the field is running, it's time to stop and reevaluate if this is still safe for everyone. If you have scared people trying to catch scared horses, there's more likelihood of someone getting hurt. Horsemanship and common sense have to prevail."

Ramsey said the weather forecast often can change completely from morning to afternoon. During inclement weather, he likes to closely monitor the forecast so he can make the most sensible and efficient decisions.

For example, he may have a group of employees return to the farm in the evening to turn out horses if the storms are forecast to clear by that time. The last thing he wants is to turn out horses and then have to bring them right back in because another band of storms is headed toward the farm.

"When you change their routine, you have to think twice and move once," he remarked.

Online radar

Sugar Maple Farm in Poughquag, New York, covers 500 acres and averages about 130 horses by the summer. Farm manager Dan Hayden has found, in addition to televised weather forecasts, an online weather service has proved quite helpful.

Hayden stays informed about the weather via Yahoo (weather.yahoo.com) by accessing the radar maps for his area.

"We watch the five-day forecast and check the radar to track any storms coming to our area," he said. "You can listen to the TV, but with the radar we can predict when and if a storm will hit the farm. We can track them this way so if there's a major storm, we know when it's coming. Nothing is foolproof and you can still be surprised, but this has been effective."

Hayden is usually more concerned with thunderstorms in the summer than with snowstorms during the winter. The farm has a large foal population in the summer and, because of the chance of lightning, Hayden likes to bring all horses inside before a thunderstorm.

Relying on the online radar charts, he makes a point of planning turnout around the weather.

"If they're forecasting thunderstorms in the afternoon, I will turn out in the morning and then bring the horses in," he said. "Obviously, you can't get everything in all the time, but we do our best under the circumstances."

All of Sugar Maple's barns and run-in sheds are equipped with lightning protection.

Storm warning

While the Weather Channel is fine for getting the big picture, Eddie Martin, owner and general manager of Martin Stables South near Ocala, relies on the Internet to track local storms. He turns to the Weather Channel's website and to Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com), the same website the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. links to on its website (www.obssales.com).

"Using the Internet has been most helpful for me. Every day, especially during hurricane season, I'm always on the Internet checking the radar," Martin said. "Radar is the most helpful in the summertime to see where the storms are coming from and if we're in harm's way and need to bring our most valuable assets indoors."

Covering 320 acres, Martin Stables South is a commercial breeding operation. With 100 stalls and approximately 160 horses on the farm at peak times, it simply is not possible to bring every horse inside when a storm is bearing down. When this is the case, the stallions and the most valuable mares and foals are housed in the concrete block barns. Some barns on the farm are wood construction, so in the event of a tornado warning, horses are only placed in stalls in the concrete-block barns.

"We're in the 'lightning capital of the world,' so we do have lightning rods in some of the bigger trees," Martin said. "Most of our horses stay outside, so we make sure they have proper identification on their halters in case there's a breach in the fence and they get loose."

If hurricane weather threatens and the electricity goes out, the farm is equipped with generators to run all of the wells.

Cynthia McFarland is a Florida-based Thoroughbred Times correspondent